10/15/2018 Colloquium Series - Jerome Busemeyer: “Progress Review after 10 Years of Applying Quantum Probability to Judgment and Decision Making”

What type of probability theory best describes the way humans make judgments under uncertainty and decisions under conflict? Although rational models of cognition and decision have become prominent and have achieved much success, they adhere to the laws of classical probability theory despite the fact that human reasoning does not always conform to these laws. For this reason, we have seen the recent emergence of models based on an alternative probabilistic framework drawn from quantum theory. These quantum models show promise in addressing human cognitive and decision-making phenomena that have proven recalcitrant to modeling by means of classical probability theory. This review compares and contrasts probabilistic models based on Bayesian or classical versus quantum principles, and highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.